This Time It's Different?

The late Sir John Templeton, founder of Franklin Templeton Investments liked to say, "The Four most expensive words in the English Language are ‘This time it’s Different.’"


Is it really?

The National Bureau of Economic Research states that the United States has weathered a recession in EVERY decade since the 1920′s.

It is easy to say “This time its different.” Many people are still feeling that way.
However, it is important to keep in mind a few points.


* Financial decisions (any financial decisions) should not be based on emotion.

* Historically, after every past recession, the market has gone on to hit new highs.

* Declines in the market & economy, even our most severe ones, have been temporary.

* Since 1926, the Dow Jones has had TWICE AS MANY positive returns as negative ones.

Despite more than 12 recessions dating back to 1926, $1.00 invested in the Dow in 1926 would have been worth $2045.00 at the end of 2008.

It was two years ago this week (Oct. 16, 2008), that Warren Buffett wrote his “Buy America, I Am” article in the New York Times. Buffett encouraged investors to “be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.” Since Mr. Buffett wrote this letter, the S&P 500 Index has gained 29.1% on a total return basis through the close of business on Friday October 8, 2010, according to the New York Times.

“This time it’s different?” Warren Buffett didn’t think so. Neither did Sir John Templeton. Neither should we. Investing is a long term process. Recessions are opportunities. My job as an advisor is to provide you with a beacon of hope, and see the light at the end of the dark tunnel.

Let me know how I may be of service. Contact me about the IRA Security Blanket!

Help! My 401(k) Has Fallen – And Must Get Up! is my new book. It has several ideas and strategies which will help you in your retirement savings journey. Get your ‘Fallen’ 401(k) back on its feet. Contact me to reserve your copy today. You can also get a FREE report at my website – The 5 Biggest Problems With 401(k) Plans – And How To Fix Them.

You may also listen to my weekly radio program – Improving Your Financial Health on WHME-FM in South Bend. Archives can be heard on my website as well. If you live in the South Bend, IN area, I specialize in 401(k) rollovers or IRA reviews. You can also follow me on Twitter, Linked In, or Facebook.

Taking Stock

I'm not a big individual stock fan. For most people, mutual funds are a much better way to invest. Its easier to be diverisfied and its also easier to add money systematically.

However, I did see something recently which I thought my readers may enjoy. If you were going to invest in stocks, which companies would be good ones to own long-term? At least one sign of a great company is one which is able to consistently increase their dividend payment.

If you aren't sure what a dividend is, think of it this way. When you own stock, you own a tiny piece of that company. Your investment rises and falls with the performance of the company. Over time, you would like to think the company will grow, and your money will grow with it. Companies which have established themselves and become profitable will share part of their profits with you as a part owner. Those profit sharing payments are known as dividends and are usually paid once every 3 months.

Again, the sign of a great company is one which has raised its dividend payment consistently, even in tough times. Raising the dividend for shareholders is like giving them a pay raise. (CDs don't do THAT!!) Those companies would be great to own long term.

What if a company were able to raise its dividend 25 years in a row or more?

Here are the ones which have:
Abbott Labs                     (ABT)
Bemis                               (BMS)
Century Tel                     (CTL)
Chubb                               (CB)
Coca-Cola                        (KO)
Exxon-Mobil                    (XOM)
Johnson & Johnson         (JNJ)
Mc Donalds                     (MCD)
3M                                   (MMM)
Pitney Bowes                  (PBI)
PPG                                 (PPG)
Proctor & Gamble          (PG)
Walmart                          (WMT)    

S&P reports that since 1926, dividends have contributed to about 1/3 of the total return on your investment.

Another thing I like about dividends is that when the stock price goes down, the dividend yield goes up. Its a great time to buy more of great companies. That is what Warren Buffett does!

For example, lets look at Proctor & Gamble. Shares of PG are currently (2/3/10) at $62.90. Dividends are paid at $1.76/share, which is divided into 4 quarterly payments. You will get a dividend return of 2.8% on any shares purchased at that price.

What if you had been fortunate enough to buy in March of 2009, when it was selling for around $44/share? Well, you still would have gotten $1.76 per share, but that works out to about a 4% dividend return. (Better than a CD, and with potential to grow!)

Warren Buffett has become extremely wealthy because he buys great companies and holds them, collecting dividends which increase year after year after year.

Again, I am not encouraging people to buy individual stocks. There are plenty of financial stocks such as Citigroup and Bank of America which also had wonderful histories of increased dividends, until 2008.
Dividends are certainly something to consider though for any investment - including mutual funds and annuities.

You can contact me through my website, http://www.helpmy401k.us/. You can also contact me on LinkedIn at http://www.linkedin.com/in/dvoelker, or Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/deanvoelker. I am currently hosting a weekly financial advice program, "Improving Your Financial Health" on Blog Talk Radio at http://www.blogtalkradio.com/401kcoach.  Let me know how I may help you!

  

Fixing Your 401(k) - Part 5

Problem #5 - Investments

If you have been following me on this blog lately, you might think that I'm against the idea of 401(k) plans. Not so! Let me state this clearly. I LOVE 401(k) plans as a source of saving for retirement. EVERYONE should be participating in a 401(k).

However, there are many potential hazards that you must be aware of in your 401(k) plans.
So my purpose here has been acting as a 'caddy' and letting you know where the bunkers & water hazards are at so we can avoid them. And I certainly want you all to finish the 'course'.

Today, we will look at the problem which most investors find it easiest to point fingers at -
Investments.

How many investment choices are offered in your plan? And how do you choose which ones are right for you? How long do you stay with invesments in your plan before you look for
"greener grass"?

A survey done by Watson Wyatt in January 2008, (Watson Wyatt is the trusted business partner to the world’s leading organizations on people and financial issues)
http://www.watsonwyatt.com/us/pubs/insider/showarticle.asp?ArticleID=18489
gives us this information.

* 30% of all participants have NO equity (stock mutual funds) in their plans.
* 20% of investors at least 45 and older have stopped contributing.
* Too many people are invested heavily in their company stock, some who have at least
50% or more of their plans in company stock.
(Company stock is an issue I will look at in further detail in my next article.)

Dave Ramsey likes to ask this question - If you were CFO of your own finances, would you fire you? Well, the reality is that YES YOU ARE the CFO of your finances & retirement savings!

"Investors Behaving Badly: An Analysis of Investor Trading Patterns in Mutual Funds" is a 2001 article that shows people are holding their funds for shorter and shorter time periods, as short as 2.9 years, and probably even less time these days after all of the challenges recently.
http://spwfe.fpanet.org:10005/public/Unclassified%20Records/FPA%20Journal%20November%202001%20-%20Investors%20Behaving%20Badly_%20An%20Analysis%20of%20Investor%20Trading%20Patt.pdf

This is like moving your boat all around the pond in search of the 'perfect' fishing spot. It usually just scares the fish! This also explains why people finally give up and put everything into "safe" money market funds, because as one gentleman puts it. "At least I'm not losing nothing."

Wayne Gretzky said (during his playing days), "I skate to where the puck is going, not where it has been." How do we know where the 'puck' is going? We don't. That would mean market timing, and as Warren Buffett would say, "I'm not smart enough for that."

How many funds should an employer's plan offer? Anywhere from about 12 - 20 is a good range. Your personal plan should meet these objectives.
* Look for funds which have 10 year (or longer) histories. Established funds give a much
clearer long term picture of what to expect.
* Pay attention to fund expenses. The higher the expenses, the more it can hurt your return.
* Treat the plan as if you are at a "buffet". The plan offers a menu of choices, and it is best to
have somthing from all of the food groups. Just as you wouldn't eat only the fried chicken,
you also need fixed income, dividend paying funds (large companies), medium sized
companies, small companies, and international.
* Meet with an advisor to help you find the mix you should have and how much to put in.
Many good advisors (including myself) offer to do this at no charge to you. Let him or her
help you put a roadmap together which will help you get to (and through) retirement
safely.

Next we will examine the issue of company stock in 401(k) plans. For more information or to contact me, please visit http://www.helpmy401k.us/. You can also follow me on Twitter at
http://twitter.com/DeanVoelker

Retire As A Millionaire!

Want to retire as a Millionaire? As Warren Buffett might say, "It's Simple, but never easy."

Dave Ramsey, the leading expert in helping others to build wealth has an illustration he shows in his classes, to show how Compound Interest works. Dave uses the example of Ben & Arthur. (Why not Ben & Jerry? Just kidding!) http://www.daveramsey.com/etc/cms/index.cfm?intContentId=64

In the example, Ben starts at age 19 and invests $2000 per year at 12% (Well, an AVERAGE of 12%). Ben does this from Age 19 to Age 26 (8 years or a total of $16000 invested) and then stops. He lets the money compound and continues to earn 12%. At Age 65, assuming he never withdraws anything, Ben has $2,288,996.

Arthur, on the other hand, waits until he is 27 to get started, and also invest $2000 per year at 12%. Amazingly, even though Arthur invests a total of $78,000 over 39 years, and is getting the same return, he NEVER catches up with Ben, because Ben started earllier. Arthur's total at Age 65 is $1,532,166. I think many people would be happy with that number though.
Compound interest teaches us a few things.

1. Start early. The eariler you grasp this concept, and apply it for yourself the better.
2. Start now. Don't worry about the past. Make a plan to start today. And STICK TO IT.
3. Down Markets will happen. With disciplined investing (By the way, $2000/year works out to
less than $40/week.) you are buy at a bargain when values are down. The catch is to do it
every week.
4. Compound interest is either working for you or against you. Is it time to do "plastic surgery"
on your credit cards?

For more information, contact me at www.deanvoelker.com

Am I Getting The Most From My 401(k)?

Today's economic conditions seem to create more questions than answers.

Yet the fact remains - we need to continue to save (and invest) in order to retire with dignity.
Dave Kansas makes a good point in a recent article "What Do I Do Now?" (Wall Street Journal - April 10, 2009) http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/do-do-now/story.aspx?guid=%7BE341FAB9-B0EC-4310-8E19-E03CE63FB7E4%7D when he quotes the author, Rudyard Kipling. "Keep your head about you as everyone is losing theirs."

That is what many good advisors tell you, although it is easy to say....and hard to do.

Another problem is that company retirement plans have become increasingly complex. Features such as online investing and elections, and mulitiple fund choices were designed for convenience, but actually may cause people to become "accidental " investors, which leads to confusion and inconsistent results.

This can present a problem for businesses who have a Fiduciary Responsibility to their employees to provide the highest quality investments and proper education on how to invest, why to invest, and how much to invest - at a reasonable cost.

Alliance Bernstein did a study recently http://www.deanvoelker.com/files/ab401kreview.pdf.
They found that both plan sponsors and participants want to "keep it simple".
(Hmmm....imagine that!)

Plan sponsors must review their plans on a regular basis. They need to make sure they are working with a professional who can meet with employees regularly and "keep it simple."
A strategy must be put in place to make sure you are saving enough.
http://www.helpmy401k.us/investment-tools.htm Please use the 401(k) calculator to see if you are on track for your goals.

Employees should also ask their plan sponsor about how funds are selected. There needs to be enough selection to be diversified, but not so much that it is overwhelming.

"Keep your head about you while everyone else is losing theirs." (Kipling)
"Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful." (Buffett)

Please contact me at www.deanvoelker.com for more information.

A "Golden" Opportunity?

My job is to help others to grow their savings and improve their financial health. These days, we all need to get healthy. A common question I get is whether or not to invest in gold.

Gold is an investment that can be part of your portfolio. Talk with your advisor to decide how much, part should be.

Warren Buffett likes to say, " We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful."
http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/authors/w/warren_buffett_2.html
I don't know about you, but when I hear every other commercial on Financial TV & Radio
promoting gold, it sounds pretty "greedy" to me, wouldn't you agree?

Dave Ramsey put on a Town Hall for Hope on Thurs. April 23. Over 6000 watched and decided it was time to put fear aside and start making smart choices with their money. From the site
http://www.townhallforhope.com/ , Dave shares some interesting facts about gold & other investments.

Did you know that gold has only risen an average of 2.14% per year? And that includes a surge since 2001 to present. http://www.townhallforhope.com/index.cfm?event=displayPostStats

Did you also know that the S & P has grown by 1250% since 1974, from 63 to 850? That includes recessions in the 1970's, 1980s, 2001-2002, and the present.
http://www.townhallforhope.com/index.cfm?event=displayPostStats

Check out these other interesting stats at http://www.townhallforhope.com/

Before investing, talk with your advisor to determine your goals, time horizon & risk tolerance.
For more information, or to contact me directly, visit my site at http://www.deanvoelker.com/ .